In most years, Medicare Advantage disenrollment is a defensive problem: a plan keeps the members it has, and the losses are gradual. 2026 broke that pattern. A wave of plan exits pushed roughly 2.9 million Medicare Advantage members, about 10 percent of enrollees, out of plans that stopped serving their counties, a nearly tenfold jump from the 1 percent average that held from 2018 through 2024.1 The market filled with switchers, and every plan is now fighting on two fronts, defending the members it has and competing for a large pool of switchers. The same thing decides both: whether the plan is easy to be a member of.
The same failure now costs a plan twice
Forced disenrollment, the county exits that drove the 2026 spike, is not a service problem, and no plan can prevent it. But everything the disruption set in motion afterward is within a plan's control. A market this unsettled taxes a weak member experience twice, once as the plan loses its own members and again as it fails to keep the switchers it wins. A new member arrives with no goodwill in reserve. A tenured member might forgive a bad call after ten good years; a member of ten days simply shops again.
Members leave for reasons a plan can see coming
On both fronts, the reasons are documented, and they are not mainly about price. In the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, the strongest predictors of leaving were difficulty accessing care, which raised the odds by about a third, and low plan generosity, by roughly half; cost alone was not significant once the other factors were accounted for.2 CMS confirms it in its own monthly Disenrollment Reasons Survey,3 where close to a fifth of disenrollees cite problems getting services covered and roughly one in eight cite customer service.4 Those are the substance of member service calls.
The decision is usually audible before it is final
An honest caveat first: access and benefit design, the largest drivers, are not call center problems in origin, and listening does not widen a narrow network. What it does is surface the trouble first. Members rarely leave over a benefit design in the abstract; they phone to ask why a service was denied or a drug dropped, and hang up without an answer long before they fill out a form. A member who has called three times about one issue is not satisfied, yet first call resolution in health insurance is only about 72 percent,5 and for complaint calls just 47 percent.6 Traditional quality assurance reviews only 2 to 5 percent of calls,7 so the slow walk to disenrollment, and nearly every call in a language other than English, goes unheard.
Why the loss counts twice on the books
The cost shows up plainly. CMS caps broker pay at $694 for a new Medicare Advantage enrollment in 2026 and $347 for a renewal, so acquiring a member costs at least twice keeping one.8 In a churning market a plan pays that premium at volume, and winning a switcher only to lose them a year later to an unreviewed call means it bought nothing. On top sits the Star Ratings bonus: eligibility turns on the four star threshold, and a half star slip from 4.0 to 3.5 erases the entire 5 percent bonus,9 several million dollars a year for a midsize plan.
CMS just removed the disenrollment scorecard
The timing is unkind. On April 2, 2026, the Contract Year 2027 Final Rule removed 11 Star Ratings measures, including Members Choosing to Leave the Plan, the measure that graded plans on voluntary disenrollment, effective with the 2029 Star Ratings.10 That looks like relief, but nothing underneath it changed. CMS still fields the Disenrollment Reasons Survey and reports disenrollment publicly, CAHPS remains in the formula at double weight,11 and a lost member still has to be replaced. CMS stopped keeping score in the very year a plan can least afford to look away.
What to look for in a way to see it coming
Finding these members while there is still time to act is a different exercise from grading agents on a sample. A plan should look for:
- Whole population analysis rather than sampling, so a single member's escalating calls and the patterns across the book are both visible.
- Scoring that reads the member, weighing sentiment, unresolved issues, and repeat contact, not just whether the agent's greeting was correct.
- The same rigor for every language, including interpreter lines, which Section 1557 of the Affordable Care Act makes a legal duty.
- Plan ownership of the data and scoring models, so the retention signal survives changes in vendors, staffing, and telephony.
- A direct link from calls to CAHPS, grievances, and disenrollment, so sentiment does not sit in a report no one connects.
This is the gap Claro by Mizzeto was built to close. Claro analyzes the full volume of member calls, including the languages and interpreter lines sampling never reaches, and its Member Sentiment & At-Risk Identification scoring surfaces the unresolved, escalating conversations that turn into disenrollment months later, for tenured and newly won members alike, while the plan keeps ownership of the data. For the upstream work, see how payers can fix their call centers.
The bottom line
For one year at least, retention is a contest a plan can lose on both sides at once. The reasons people leave Medicare Advantage plans are documented, they turn on usability more than price, and they surface on calls long before an enrollment form, for members of a decade or a week. CMS took away the measure. The cost, paid twice over in a churning market, did not fall.
References
1. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Georgetown University, JAMA (Feb. 18, 2026): approximately 2.9 million Medicare Advantage members, about 10 percent of enrollees, faced forced disenrollment for 2026 as plans exited markets, up from a mean of 1 percent from 2018 to 2024 and 6.9 percent in 2025. jamanetwork.com
2. Health Affairs, study of Medicare Advantage disenrollment using the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2015 to 2020): difficulty accessing care associated with roughly 1.33 times greater likelihood of disenrollment; low plan generosity roughly 1.47 times; dissatisfaction with care quality significant; dissatisfaction with cost alone not a significant independent predictor (approx. 1.03 times). healthaffairs.org
3. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Medicare Advantage and Prescription Drug Plan Disenrollment Reasons Survey. Captures why beneficiaries voluntarily leave; results publicly reported in the annual Star Ratings Data Table and Display Measures. cms.gov
4. The Commonwealth Fund, analysis of CMS Medicare Advantage Disenrollment Reasons Survey data: approximately 18 percent of disenrollees cited problems getting the plan to cover services and approximately 13 percent cited customer service issues such as trouble obtaining accurate information; voluntary disenrollment across MA contracts rose about 70 percent between 2017 and 2021. commonwealthfund.org
5. SQM Group, First Call Resolution Benchmarking by Industry: health insurance first call resolution approximately 72 percent. sqmgroup.com
6. SQM Group, first call resolution by call type: complaint calls resolve on first contact approximately 47 percent of the time, the lowest of all call types. sqmgroup.com
7. SQM Group, call center quality assurance benchmarking: traditional programs review roughly 2 to 5 percent of interactions. sqmgroup.com
8. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Agent and Broker Compensation memorandum for Contract Year 2026 (June 18, 2025): national maximum Fair Market Value of $694 for a new Medicare Advantage enrollment and $347 for a renewal. cms.gov
9. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Payment methodology: bonus payments apply to contracts at or above the four star threshold; loss of four star status removes the 5 percent quality bonus applied to the benchmark. cms.gov
10. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Contract Year 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Final Rule (April 2, 2026): removal of 11 Star Ratings measures, including Members Choosing to Leave the Plan, effective with the 2029 Star Ratings. cms.gov; Federal Register, April 6, 2026.
11. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, 2026 Medicare Part C and D Star Ratings Technical Notes: CAHPS and patient experience measure weights reduced from quadruple (4x) to double (2x) effective with the 2026 Star Ratings. cms.gov





















